Nigeria Set To Become Africa’s Third-Largest Economy In 2025, Says National Orientation Agency.
The National Orientation Agency (NOA) has forecasted that Nigeria will surpass Algeria to claim the position of Africa’s third-largest economy by Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2025. This optimistic projection follows a remarkable 38 per cent surge in Nigeria’s GDP, which reached N372.8 trillion ($243.7 billion) in 2024, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The announcement has sparked widespread optimism about Nigeria’s economic trajectory and its growing influence on the continent.
In its weekly publication, *The Explainer*, the NOA highlighted that Nigeria’s economy has been bolstered by a strategic rebasing exercise conducted by the NBS, using 2019 as the new base year. This rebasing incorporated previously overlooked sectors such as digital economic activities, informal markets, creative industries, and fintech, providing a more accurate reflection of the nation’s economic output. The updated figures show Nigeria’s GDP climbing from a previous estimate of $187.8 billion to $243.7 billion in 2024, positioning the country just behind Algeria’s $247.63 billion nominal GDP. The NOA projects that Nigeria will overtake Algeria by the first quarter of 2025, driven by sustained growth in non-oil sectors.
The services sector, contributing 53.09 per cent to the GDP, has been the backbone of this economic surge, with telecommunications and financial services leading the charge. Agriculture, accounting for 25.83 per cent, and industry, at 21.08 per cent, also played significant roles. Notably, crop production emerged as the top economic activity, contributing 17.58 per cent to the rebased GDP, followed closely by trade at 17.42 per cent and real estate at 10.78 per cent. The NOA attributes this growth to bold reforms, including the elimination of fuel subsidies and the unification of the exchange rate, which have enhanced fiscal stability and attracted foreign investment.
Despite challenges posed by foreign exchange rate volatility, Nigeria’s GDP in naira terms has maintained a consistent upward trend. The NOA noted that the rebasing exercise has not only highlighted Nigeria’s economic resilience but also created an estimated two million jobs in emerging sectors. The agency’s report underscores the government’s commitment to diversifying the economy, reducing reliance on oil, and fostering growth in areas such as fintech, which accounts for 28 per cent of Africa’s fintech companies, and telecommunications, contributing 12.45 per cent to GDP in 2024.
The NOA’s projection aligns with broader economic optimism, as Nigeria’s non-oil exports rose by 24.75 per cent in the first quarter of 2025, reaching $1.79 billion. Initiatives like the establishment of new textile parks, automotive plants, and food hubs within Special Economic Zones are expected to further drive job creation and foreign exchange savings. The Federal Ministry of Information and National Orientation, chaired by Mohammed Idris, has reaffirmed its target of securing $6 billion in foreign direct and portfolio investments in 2025, with over $50 billion already mobilised in investor commitments.
While Nigeria remains Africa’s fourth-largest economy in 2024, trailing South Africa ($400.26 billion), Egypt ($389.05 billion), and Algeria, the NOA’s forecast signals a pivotal shift. Economists suggest that sustained policy reforms, improved security, and increased oil production from facilities like the Dangote refinery could propel Nigeria closer to its ambition of a $1 trillion economy by 2030. For now, the nation stands on the cusp of a significant milestone, poised to cement its status as a leading economic powerhouse in Africa.
