World Bank Projects Rise In Nigerian Poverty By 2027 Amid Economic Fragility.
A new report by the World Bank has projected that poverty in Nigeria will rise by 3.6 percentage points between 2022 and 2027, further deepening concerns over economic hardship in Africa’s most populous nation.
The projection was revealed in the World Bank’s latest *Africa Pulse* report, released during the ongoing Spring Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank in Washington, D.C., USA. The report paints a sobering picture of poverty trends in Sub-Saharan Africa, with Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo identified as the major contributors to the region’s rising extreme poverty levels.
“Poverty in resource-rich, fragile countries—including large economies like Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo—is projected to increase by 3.6 percentage points between 2022 and 2027,” the report stated.
The report noted that Sub-Saharan Africa remains the region with the highest concentration of the global poor, accounting for 80 per cent of the world’s 695 million people living in extreme poverty in 2024. Alarmingly, half of the 560 million extremely poor people in the region are located in just four countries, one of which is Nigeria.
In stark contrast, other regions fare significantly better, with South Asia contributing only 8 per cent to the global poverty figures, East Asia and the Pacific 2 per cent, the Middle East and North Africa 5 per cent, and Latin America and the Caribbean 3 per cent.
The World Bank attributed the projected rise in poverty across resource-rich African nations to a combination of declining oil revenues and fragile fiscal frameworks. The report highlights how economic reliance on natural resources, coupled with political or institutional fragility, consistently correlates with elevated poverty rates.
“This follows a well-established pattern whereby resource wealth combined with fragility or conflict is associated with the highest poverty rates—averaging 46% in 2024, which is 13 percentage points higher than in non-fragile, resource-rich countries,” it noted.
Conversely, non-resource-rich countries have experienced relatively stronger growth due to favourable agricultural commodity prices. Despite fiscal pressures, these nations have managed to reduce poverty more effectively, leveraging gains from sectors outside of extractive industries.
The findings come amid growing concerns about Nigeria’s economic direction, with inflation, currency instability, and structural inefficiencies continuing to affect livelihoods. The report underscores the urgent need for Nigeria to strengthen its fiscal systems, diversify the economy, and invest in policies that ensure inclusive growth.
As Nigeria looks ahead to 2027, the World Bank’s projections serve as a critical reminder of the need for deliberate reforms to protect vulnerable populations and reverse the deepening poverty trends.